Hey all,
Before getting into the eval, I wanted to give an explanation about how I grade QBs for any new readers and to explain some changes I made this year to those who followed my work last year. I grade QBs on the following: footwork, pocket presence, “playmaking,” short throw accuracy (<5 yards), medium throw accuracy (5-14 yards), intermediate throw accuracy (15-29 yards), deep throw accuracy (30+ yards), throw on the run accuracy, success against pressure/blitz, arm strength, release, ball security, and top starter potential. The distance definitions are slightly different as I previously had my “short throw accuracy” as 0-15 yards but with some offenses having a very high rate of screens around the line of scrimmage, I wanted to make this change to help differentiate true accuracy and not be inflated by easy completions.
For the grading, I use a standard United States grading system for all of these grades and take an average, similar to a GPA (i.e. an A= 4, B=3, C=2, etc.). I grade QBs’ footwork, pocket presence, “playmaking,” arm strength, release, ball security, and top starter potential during the season and initial in-depth watches. Then I’ll evaluate their short throw accuracy, medium throw accuracy, deep throw accuracy, throw on the run, and success against pressure/blitz during my third rewatch while charting what I consider the player’s 4 hardest matchups (if I can find 4 replays of games to watch for them).
While charting, I determine accuracy by assessing the passes’ vertical and horizontal accuracy for both on and off platform throws. I then decide if the verticality is an overthrow, high, accurate, low, or underthrow. I do the same for horizontality and decide if the throw was in front, slightly ahead, accurate, slightly behind, or behind. Throws that are considered accurate are counted towards the accuracy score numerator, which is divided by the total number of throws evaluated. The overthrow, underthrow, front, and behind numbers are tracked for throws that are “way off target,” for tracking purposes. (I’ll also track sacks, fumbles, deflections, pass interference calls, throwaways, interceptions, dropped interceptions, dropped passes to receivers, designed runs, and scrambles for perspective). The scale I use to grade these are all slightly different to adjust for difficulty.
For short accuracy, I use the following scale: A=85%, A-=80%, B+=75%, B=70%, B-=65%, C+=60%, C=55%, C-=50%, D+=45%, D=40%, D-=35%, F+=30%, F=25%
For medium accuracy, I use the following scale: A=80%, A-=75%, B+=70%, B=65%, B-=60%, C+=55%, C=50%, C-=45%, D+=40%, D=35%, D-=30%, F+=25%, F=20%
For intermediate accuracy, I use the following scale: A=75%, A-=70%, B+=65%, B=60%, B-=55%, C+=50%, C=45%, C-=40%, D+=35%, D=30%, D-=25%, F+=20%, F=15%
For deep accuracy, I use the following scale: A=70%, A-=65%, B+=60%, B=55%, B-=50%, C+=45%, C=40%, C-=35%, D+=30%, D=25%, D-=20%, F+=15%, F=10%
For throw on the run accuracy, I’ll use their accuracy from off-platform throws but will also apply multipliers of x1.5 to the medium throw accuracy and x2 to the deep throw accuracy to account for increased difficulty of completing the throw. After that, I take the totals together and use the following scale: A=75%, A-=70%, B+=65%, B=60%, B-=55%, C+=50%, C=45%, C-=40%, D+=35%, D=30%, D-=25%, F+=20%, F=15%
For success against pressure/blitz, I consider a “win” against a pressure or blitz if the QB gets any yardage back against either (unless they get 1 yard back on something like a 3rd and 15/have the drive come to a sudden stop). For this, I use the following scale: A=70%, A-=65%, B+=60%, B=55%, B-=50%, C+=45%, C=40%, C-=35%, D+=30%, D=25%, D-=20%, F+=15%, F=10%
For arm strength, I have to do some estimating or trust some reports, but I use the following scale based on how far a player can probably throw the ball at a pro day if they aren’t pressured and able to throw the ball as far as they can while still maintaining some accuracy: A=75 yards, A-=70 yards, B+=65 yards, B=60 yards, B-55 yards, C+=50 yards, C= 45 yards, C-40 yards, D+= 35 yards, D=30 yards, D-=25 yards, F+=20 yards, F=15 yards.
For ball security, I take the total number of passing and rushing attempts from a player’s season and divide it by the total number of INTs and fumbles to get the average number of attempts prior to committing a turnover. I use the following scale for this: A=125 attempts/turnover (TO), A-=100 attempts/TO, B+=75 attempts, B=60 attempts/TO, B-=45 attempts, C+=35 attempts/turnover, C=30 attempts/turnover, C-=25 attempts/turnover, D+=20 attempts/TO, D=15 attempts/turnover, D-=10 attempts/TO, F+=5 attempts/TO, F=1 attempt/TO.
After all of this, I use the overall score (or what would traditionally be their GPA) to consider their prospects in the draft as: Future All-Pro= 4-3.5, Top Tier Prospect= 3.5-3.25, Good Starter= 3.25-3, Good Role Player= 3-2.75, May Have a Future Role= 2.75=2.5, Needs Improvement to Contribute= 2.5-2.25, Unlikely to Contribute= 2.25-2, <2= Likely Not Worth Rostering. With short accuracy now being
I know this is a lot of information, but I wanted to give some information on how the grades are determined for new readers.
Cam Ward, Miami
Height: 6’2”; Weight: 223 pounds
Age on Draft Day: 22 years and 11 months
Class: RS Senior
Overall Grade: 3.05/4 (Good Starter)
2024 Games Charted: Cal, Duke, Georgia Tech, Syracuse
Totals from Games Charted:
Short Throw Accuracy on Platform: 74/98 (75.51%)
Short Throw Accuracy off Platform: 25/36 (69.44%)
Medium Throw Accuracy on Platform: 74/94 (78.72%)
Medium Throw Accuracy off Platform: 17/25 (68%)
Intermediate Throw Accuracy on Platform: 34/50 (68%)
Intermediate Accuracy off Platform: 8/14 (57.14%)
Deep Throw Accuracy on Platform: 8/16 (50%)
Deep Throw Accuracy off Platform: 0/2 (0%)
Left Side of Field Accuracy: 88/134 (65.67%)
Middle of Field Accuracy: 58/72 (80.56%)
Right Side of Field Accuracy: 94/132 (71.21%)
On Platform, Way Off Target Throws (Vertical/Horizontal): 10/2 (2.5/0.5 per game)
Off Platform, Way Off Target Throws (Vertical/Horizontal): 2/1 (0.5/0.25 per game
Sacks/Fumbles: 9/2 (2.25/0.5 per game)
Deflections/Pass Interference: 4/4 (1/1 per game)
Throwaways/INTs/Dropped INTs: 8/2/0 (2/0.5/0 per game)
Drops: 18 (4.5 per game)
Designed Runs/Scrambles: 3/8 (0.75/2 per game)
Success vs Blitz: 48/72 (66.67%)
Success vs Pressure: 45/76 (59.21%)
Footwork: C-
Pocket Presence: C+
“Playmaking”: B+
Short Throw Accuracy: B+
Medium Throw Accuracy: A-
Intermediate Throw Accuracy: B+
Deep Throw Accuracy: B-
Throw on the Run: A-
Success Against Pressure/Blitz: B+
Arm Strength: A-
Release: B+
Ball Security: B-
Top Starter Potential: B-
Strengths:
Release
Accuracy
“Playmaker”
Played more calm
Blitz at your own risk
Areas of Improvement:
Three-quarters release
Footwork
Pocket management
Ball security
Potential consistency concerns
Comp: Baker Mayfield
One of the most interesting college careers to follow in this NFL draft is Cam Ward’s. Starting his career at the FCS level at Incarnate Word and continued to progress as a passer as he transferred to Washington State in 2022 and Miami in 2024. Speaking of his progression, I actually did a full scouting report with charting for Ward last year when he originally declared for the draft and his improvements have been very impressive. Last year, Ward started out the 2023 season on fire but faded as the season went along. This year, he was consistent throughout the entire season and didn’t fold under pressure in big games despite his defense forcing him to keep up in high-scoring games. His intermediate passing accuracy also took a step forward and he overall looks more comfortable as a passer from the pocket. He can still slip into his hero mode tendencies but he generally looks calm in the pocket and does a good job working through his progressions. Also, he does a good job knowing where his outlet option is and did a better job minimizing sacks this year. Last year, blitzing and getting pressure on him was an easy way to beat Ward but this year he made teams pay. Whether it’s delivering a ball before pressure hits him or scrambling out of the pocket and delivering an accurate ball on the move, he’s just hard to beat and still has the improv skills to beat defenses. He’s just a really talented player with effortless arm strength which lets him fling the ball downfield with great velocity. He also has an elastic arm that can release the ball at any angle he desires. Those arm angles paired with his quick, efficient release and arm strength help him sneak the ball into tight windows through defenders. Though he’s not the largest quarterback, he can still be tough to bring down and has solid speed to pick up yards on the ground. Despite that, he is still very much a pass-first quarterback and does a great job keeping his eyes downfield to try to make a big play. With the amount of experience he has, he also has learned where to place the ball to help protect his receiver from a big hit as well as how to help give them an opportunity to pick up yards after the catch. At the quarterback position, he definitely is the biggest “playmaker” out of this group with his arm talent and legs that should excite any team that grades highly on that.
As always though, no prospect is perfect and though I may be higher on Ward than most, he has some major deficits. Starting with his biggest area of improvement, his footwork. It got slightly better this season since he does a better job staying off his toes but he still has a tendency to get very bouncy in the pocket. That still plays a part in his not always getting his feet set and becoming too reliant on his upper body on throws including him not stepping into throws which can cause them to not reach his target. When he does try to use both together, the timing can be which also affects his accuracy. His base can also fluctuate as he still can lose focus on it while reading the defense and his base along with his footwork in general can get really sloppy when he’s trying to rush a throw. His dropback is also really rough and is too nonchalant. At times it looks like he doesn’t have great focus on his footwork with his drop leading it to be very heel clicky at times and seems like he’s just going through the motions. Speaking of focus, I’d like to see a bit better focus on his pocket management skills. Now he’s very good against blitzes and pressure but he can elevate his game by making subtle movements in the pocket instead of breaking his base to go into more of a sprint to escape pressure. On the flip side, he sometimes gets too comfortable in the pocket and has defenders sneak up on him which has led to some big losses on sacks. I think while he has improved on how to read a defense, he still can fall into a lull and stare down his target which leads to these lapses in the pocket and the delayed responses. I would really like to see him make those movements in the pocket and even use his eyes to look off defenders to prove that the times he beats defenses are more due to him reading the defense rather than him relying on the amount of playing time he’s gotten in college. I think if this does turn into a more major issue in the NFL, teams will slow him down by just throwing 4-man rushes at him since this often gave him trouble in college particularly this year when he faced Duke and Georgia Tech. Another issue that could become worse in the NFL is his ball security. It definitely got a lot better this year but still isn’t what I consider a strength and will need to be something he minimizes in the NFL to not give a coaching staff a headache. Also, while it may not be a true issue based on his PFF stats, his charting deep numbers were worse this year. I think that could be explained by his lack of chemistry with his pass catchers with this being his first year at Miami but that will likely be a concern for him when he enters the NFL and adjusts to the team. Finally, he has a three-quarters release throwing motion which isn’t a deal breaker in the NFL as we have seen players like Brett Favre have a very successful career despite this. However, it can affect the touch he can put on balls and I think we saw this at certain times when he tried to throw touch balls for 50/50 opportunities. Again, not a deal breaker but something he’ll need to learn how to make work, and could be a bit of a learning curve for him if he goes to a team that likes to go to these types of passes.
I try not to get caught up with storytelling with players, but Ward has one of the more impressive stories working his way from the FCS to now being a potential #1 pick in the draft. His work ethic is clear as he has continued to improve even from last year with his overall grade going from 2.64 to 3.10 this year (which is a substantial improvement with my grading). The arm talent is special and while there are fair concerns about his pocket presence and footwork, these are areas that NFL teams can work to improve since the accuracy, arm strength, ability to beat blitz/pressure, and release are all there. In a weak quarterback class, I still feel Ward has the strongest chance to have a long-lasting career thanks to his talent and feel for the position. He may never be a high-end starter in the NFL, but he can be a very good player and a long-term solution for a team. Due to both having a lot of great improv ability, good arm talent, good accuracy, and some deficits in protection, pocket management, and footwork, I have Baker Mayfield as Cam Ward’s comp. Both are excellent playmakers and players who put it all on the line to help their team win for better or for worse as they can sometimes make some really risky plays when they resort to hero ball. Both also have deceptively good scrambler ability while being great passers on the run to make it hard for a defense to stop when their accuracy is on point. Baker has proven to be a really good NFL quarterback now that he’s made improvements as a pocket passer and fine-tuned his accuracy. I could see Ward getting there too and be a very good QB for the next several years for a team.
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